Share

July 4 marks the one-year anniversary of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which has reshaped the clean energy tax landscape.
 ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here.



Good morning, happy Friday, and happy Fourth of July!! 🇺🇸🎆🧨 


The eastern U.S. is sweltering under a heat dome, which is going to make for some steamy Independence Day (and semiquincentennial!) celebrations. The DC area is bracing for a planned record-breaking 860,000 fireworks extravaganza, which could generate so much smoke that the fireworks won’t actually be visible – and could shower the city with pollution. 


Axios reported this week on findings from the research firm Jeffries that “Amazon, Google and Microsoft account for more than half of the top 15 data-center power capacity,” which means that the three companies’ combined demand is more than 21 GW of capacity—”roughly 1.6 times New York City's peak electricity demand.”


Meanwhile, a new UN report finds that global fossil fuel subsidies are on track to reach $1.1 trillion in 2026—up more than $400 billion from 2025—as developing countries move to protect consumers from energy price shocks tied to the Middle East crisis. If oil prices rise to $110 per barrel, subsidies could climb to $1.43 trillion. And, two other reports find that banks are ramping up spending on fossil fuels.


And, if you have recent experience developing utility-scale solar projects in the U.S., a team of researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory want to hear from you! They’re conducting a survey to better understand industry perspectives on what could be done to better avoid or address community opposition and permitting challenges. 


Read on for more.

Big Beautiful Fallout


July 4 marks the one-year anniversary of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which has reshaped the clean energy tax landscape as “renewables have rolled with the punches.” The rush to qualify projects before the July 4 construction deadline is over, but bigger questions remain: What happens to the post-2030 development pipeline? Will Congress eventually revive the credits? And how is the transferability market evolving as developers adapt to stricter rules? Here's where things stand.

  • The immediate disruption may be smaller than expected. Most utility-scale developers successfully "safe harbored" projects ahead of the July 4 deadline, with more than 200 GW of solar capacity expected to retain tax credit eligibility. That should keep utility-scale solar deployment relatively steady through the end of the decade.

  • The real test comes after the current pipeline is built out. Once the backlog of projects that have secured tax credit eligibility is exhausted-–likely around 2030—developers will have to finance new projects without the same level of federal support. At the same time, permitting delays, interconnection backlogs and FEOC rules may prove more consequential than the loss of tax credits alone in determining which projects move forward.

  • Will the tax credits ever be restored? While many Democrats have pledged to restore wind and solar tax credits if given the opportunity, developers themselves are divided. Larger companies increasingly argue that stable permitting, transmission expansion and regulatory certainty would do more to support long-term growth than another round of temporary incentives, while manufacturers and smaller developers remain more supportive of renewed tax policy.

  • Amidst the turbulence, the transferable tax credit market expanded from $28 billion in 2024 to $42 billion in 2025—but FEOC requirements have made buyers far more selective. More rigorous due diligence, greater emphasis on sponsor quality, and higher transaction costs are pushing the market away from simple credit trading and toward a more traditional project finance model, making it harder for smaller developers and buyers to participate.


⚡️ The Takeaway


A structural reset. The biggest shift may ultimately show up in project economics. While solar and wind will likely remain cost-competitive with fossil generation, analysts estimate power purchase agreement prices could increase 40%-50% on average, with some markets seeing spikes of up to 120% as today’s subsidized pipeline clears and replacement projects face higher costs. In a tight demand environment driven by data centers and electrification, the end of tax credits, combined with rapidly rising load growth, is increasingly looking less like a slowdown in clean energy buildout—and more like a structural reset in power prices.

Bottleneck Blues


Last week we told you about a $121 billion market distortion; this week we have another story about a different $121 billion—that’s the amount of clean energy investment at greater risk of delays or cancellation due to hangups in federal permitting, according to a new Wood Mackenzie report. It finds that expanded federal oversight has stalled 92 GW of solar, wind and storage projects, roughly one-third of the U.S. early-stage utility-scale renewable pipeline. Here are some fast facts:

  • The analysis is the first to compare permitting exposure across technologies and identifies where developers are most likely to encounter regulatory friction. It finds that federal permitting is becoming a project risk all its own and is catching far more projects than many developers expected.

  • The risks aren't evenly distributed. Solar has the largest amount of capacity exposed, with about 30% of its pipeline facing additional review. Wind is proportionally the most vulnerable, with 62% of projects affected (excluding separate FAA issues), while more than one-quarter of planned storage capacity is also exposed. Wetlands are now the biggest permitting constraint across all three technologies, while airspace reviews remain a particular challenge for wind.

  • The consequences go beyond slower timelines. Since 2025, permitting changes and federal funding withdrawals have contributed to 7 GW of projects being cancelled or stalled on federal land. Delays could also push projects past tax credit deadlines, increase development costs and complicate financing, particularly for co-located solar-plus-storage projects.

⚡️ The Takeaway


Relief may be coming—but don't count on it yet. A federal court has temporarily blocked parts of the Interior policy, and the proposed SPEED Act and other potential permitting legislation being contemplated in the Senate would streamline environmental reviews and impose firmer permitting deadlines. Both developments could ease the backlog, but neither eliminates today's uncertainty. Until a more predictable federal framework emerges, early identification of wetlands, habitat, tribal and other federal nexus issues will be increasingly critical to keeping projects on schedule—and bankable.

Carbon removal's newest darling? Mine waste.


Dedicated Dispatch readers may recall that we’ve told you about “enhanced weathering,” a carbon removal technique that turns crushed rock into a carbon sink by spreading it across farmland. This week we’re sharing a story from Heatmap News about surficial mineralization, which takes a different tack: use reactive minerals, but leave them where they already are.


Instead of mining new rock, the technology aims to accelerate the natural carbon uptake that occurs in mine tailings and steel slag—the mountains of calcium- and magnesium-rich waste left behind by mining and steelmaking.


The approach is attracting serious attention. Frontier, the Stripe-backed carbon removal buying coalition, recently named surficial mineralization one of its five most promising carbon removal pathways, estimating it could eventually remove more than 10 gigatons of CO₂ annually at a cost of $80-$120 per ton.




The appeal isn't just abundant feedstock. Because the reactions occur in contained waste piles rather than across fields or oceans, developers can directly monitor CO₂ uptake with sensors and laboratory testing, giving the technology a potential measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) advantage over enhanced weathering or ocean alkalinity enhancement.


The catch? Those waste piles need a little help. Once their outer layers react with CO₂, they form a crust that blocks access to fresh minerals underneath. Startups are testing ways to expose new surfaces, from robotic tilling of mine tailings to crushing steel slag into smaller particles. One company, Arca, is even experimenting with industrial microwaves that "pop" minerals from the inside out, creating fresh surfaces for faster carbon capture.


The sector remains early-stage, with major hurdles around site access, industrial partnerships and scaling. But Microsoft has already signed a nearly 300,000-ton offtake agreement with Arca, and Frontier has launched a dedicated testing hub in Quebec—signs that buyers see yesterday's industrial waste as a potentially valuable carbon removal resource.
Thanks for diving into the Developer Dispatch with us.
Bantam Communications Logo Footer Banner

Building American power requires a powerful team.
Learn more

Copyright @ 2026 Bantam Communications, All rights reserved. 


Our mailing address is: 
Bantam Communications
107 W Market Street
Charlottesville, Virginia 22902
United States

  
To stop receiving this newsletter, unsubscribe here.
Email Marketing by ActiveCampaign