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New analyses suggest federal policies and the data center boom are reshaping the U.S. power-sector to the benefit of natural gas, and the detriment of renewables.
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Good morning and happy Friday, 


This week saw candidates endorsed by President Trump prevail in primaries in Oklahoma and South Carolina; the pro-solar super PAC Invest in Tomorrow continues to intervene in Republican primaries and is certainly getting noticed. In Alaska, Dan Sullivan is joining Dan Sullivan on the ballot in the state’s competitive Senate race. 


The U.S. and Canada are in an escalating trade war; the U.S. administration placed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian imports, and Canada promptly announced retaliatory tariffs of 15%, 25%, and 50% on nearly $20 billion worth of U.S. goods, set to take effect on September 8. 


Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford has said “everything is on the table” and threatened to cut power and critical mineral exports to the U.S.; on Thursday, President Trump changed Lake Ontario’s name to Lake America.


Speaking of imports and energy, on Wednesday President Trump issued an executive order that declares a national emergency and restricts the purchase and installation of foreign-made grid equipment if it poses a risk to electricity supply or grid security. It’s too early to tell what the impacts will be for developers, but it’s another federal policy initiative we’ll need to keep an eye on. 


And, the latest report from BNEF offers positive if mixed news; while global investment in renewable energy plateaued in the first half of 2026, investment in co-located solar and storage hit a record; that may change as the U.S. war with Iran spurs Europe and Asia to boost use of renewables.


Read on for more.

A Flipped Forecast


Not so long ago, pundits projected that U.S. renewables were rising and natural gas was in decline. Fast forward to today, and the administration’s energy policies combined with the data center boom are reshaping the U.S. power-sector outlook, with new analyses pointing to substantially less renewable development, billions in lost investment, higher electricity costs and a major surge in proposed natural gas capacity. The scale of that shift—and how much of the gas pipeline ultimately gets built—remains uncertain. Here’s a big picture overview:

  • A new NRDC analysis estimates the loss of clean energy tax credits and other policy changes mean the U.S. stands to miss out on 390–540 GW of new wind, solar and storage capacity over the next decade. 

  • By 2035, NRDC projects significant economic and public-health consequences as a result: up to $700 billion in lost power-sector investment (including $5-15 billion in additional fossil fuel spending), electricity rates that cost up to $30 billion more annually, and air pollution that increases health-care spending by up to $1.7 billion and contributes to ~70,000 additional premature deaths per year. 

  • Meanwhile, Global Energy Monitor had identified 189 GW of gas capacity in announced, pre-construction or construction phases, nearly double its estimate from six months earlier. Much of the growth is tied to data centers, particularly in Texas, although GEM notes that many projects remain uncertain and may never be built. 

  • Note that NRDC’s 9 GW of additional gas and GEM’s 189 GW pipeline aren’t contradictory. NRDC’s 9 GW is a modeled estimate of how much new gas generation current U.S. policies would add relative to its baseline, whereas GEM’s 189 GW counts projects in various stages of development, including many that face turbine shortages, financing challenges and other hurdles.

⚡️ The Takeaway


Power crunch, clean solutions. For clean energy developers, the near-term outlook is challenging, but the market need remains. Rising electricity demand, combined with uncertainty around how much new gas can actually come online, will likely leave significant room for renewables, storage and other flexible resources. The policy environment may be less favorable, but the underlying demand for new, reliable power continues to grow.

Manufactured in Ohio


Ohio’s renewable energy debate is highlighting a growing problem for regulators across the country: fake public input designed to distort the record and make it harder to distinguish genuine community sentiment from organized influence. Earlier this year, the Ohio Power Siting Board denied the 94 MW Crossroads Solar Grazing Center a permit despite evidence that dozens of opposing comments appeared fabricated. Canary Media takes a closer look at the situation, and what can be done to curb this trend:

  • In the Crossroads case, regulators confirmed they weighed the volume of opposition when deciding whether the project served the public interest; the OPSB cited “consistent and substantial opposition” but did not refer the comments to the Ohio attorney general for investigation.

  • Ohio encountered a similar issue in 2023, when nearly 150 people disputed pro-fracking comments submitted to the state’s Oil and Gas Land Management Commission. An attorney general investigation found that a subcontractor likely misled people into allowing their information to be used but filed no civil or criminal charges.

  • Last year Ohio revised its administrative code to strengthen rules against deceptive comment-gathering practices, but no enforcement action has been taken. Other states are being more aggressive: In New York, the attorney general secured a $615,000 settlement from companies that submitted millions of fake comments using consumers’ identities during the FCC’s net-neutrality proceeding.

⚡️ The Takeaway


Rigging the record. For clean energy developers, the episode underscores the importance of trustworthy public participation in siting decisions. Potential safeguards for the comment process include CAPTCHA-style verification, metadata analysis, confirmation emails, and investigations when fraudulent submissions are suspected. Notably, false input has also surfaced in relation to elections. Earlier this month Median Strategies admitted to releasing fake poll data “created as a short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification."

Holy Endorsement


The Vatican may be the world’s smallest country, but it’s going 100% solar—the first nation to do so—in a big way, with plans to build a $117 million agrivoltaic facility in Italy that could make the Holy See energy self-sufficient within two years. Talk about a higher calling for solar.


The 80-90 MW project will be built at the Vatican-owned Santa Maria di Galeria estate outside Rome, where Vatican Radio has operated transmission facilities since the 1950s. Solar panels will cover roughly 200 hectares, with crops growing underneath. The panels will thus not only  generate electricity, they’ll also shade the crops, reducing evaporation and helping protect them from extreme weather.

Construction is expected to take 18-24 months, including permitting and administrative work, with contracts going to tender in the next several weeks. The project could also supply power to Vatican-linked facilities, including Rome’s Bambino Gesù hospital. Any excess electricity would be supplied to Italy.


The initiative was a priority of the late Pope Francis and has been endorsed by Pope Leo XIV. Under a bilateral agreement, the project will also receive exemptions from Italian taxes and public charges, although Italy says it will not create additional public-finance burdens.


Agrivoltaics are lauded for their potential to maximize the productivity of the land that hosts them. By putting solar and farming in communion, the Vatican is blessing agrivoltaics with a bright future.
Thanks for diving into the Developer Dispatch with us.
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