Time to Double Down

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Good morning and happy Friday,

Hurricane Beryl barreled through the Gulf Coast states and beyond this week, claiming several lives and leaving at least 2.5 million people without power amidst dangerous heat. A recent report from Climate Central found that extreme weather is causing more power outages across the U.S., with Texas being the worst-affected state.

Against that dark backdrop, this week brings several bright lights related to clean energy. As we approach the two-year anniversary of the IRA, its positive impacts continue to grow, with nearly $125 billion in investments announced thus far.

Wood Mackenzie’s latest global market outlook finds that global solar and wind capacity will more than triple to 8 TW by 2033, with global energy storage growing by 636% to add nearly 2,789 GWh of capacity over the next decade.

And while things are looking good for offshore wind, with ACP’s 2024 Offshore Wind Energy Market Report finding that the industry will support 56,000 jobs and $65 billion in investment by 2030, a report from ACORE finds that the new AD/CVD could raise solar panel prices in the US by 15¢/W.

Read on for more.

Time to Double Down

A recent Pew Research survey finds that despite increases in extreme weather and “the planet’s continued streak of record heat,” some Americans’ support for renewable energy sources like wind and solar has decreased. Here are some key results:

In terms of political affiliation, support among Democrats has held fairly steady; the drop is predominantly among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, “whose support started to fall sharply after President Joe Biden took office in early 2020.”
Ironically, a big reason for this shift may be the hundreds of billions of dollars of investment flowing to clean energy thanks to the IRA. The generous incentives it provides

“became fodder for Republicans, led by Mr. Trump and the fossil fuel industry, who have spent the past four years attacking renewables while promoting oil and gas.”

“One striking thing” about the polling data “is how dramatically it skews with age.” Although Republicans under the age of 30 favored renewables by a 2-to-1 margin, support declines among older cohorts, “topping out at a three-to-one margin in favor of fossil fuels among those in the 65-and-over age group.”

⚡️ The Takeaway

Disheartening doubletake. Part of the solution may lie in bridging the gap in the relatively recent but “ever-widening urban-rural divide,” something the emerging field of rural studies seeks to do. Some in the field say a loss of a sense of “shared fate” is driving “politics of resentment,” with wide-reaching societal impacts – including challenges for the energy transition. One possible solution? Some renewable project developers are doubling down on their community outreach efforts.

Experts, Schmexperts

We didn’t publish the Dispatch over the July 4th break, and fortunately, not too much happened – aside from a minor SCOTUS ruling that overturned four decades of legal principle and could upend existing laws and regulations across multiple areas, including the energy sector. Things are going to get interesting – here are a few data points to keep in mind:

The so-called “Chevron deference doctrine” is a 1984 ruling that determined “judges should defer to federal agencies’ interpretations of ambiguously worded dictates of laws passed by Congress.” In other words, if a law is unclear, let the subject matter experts decide how to interpret it.
By scuttling it, the Supreme Court’s conservative majority has created “a minefield for potential legal challenges,” and introduced significant uncertainty related to laws like the IRA – in particular, disputes may “center on how to interpret the language of the laws delegating authority to the Treasury Department to establish tax-credit rules.”

There’s also a difference of opinion as to whether the decision will affect FERC orders; although Chair Willie Phillips says it “does not threaten Order 1920,” which is designed to transform how the U.S. grid is planned and paid for, his fellow Commissioner Mark Christie begs to differ.

⚡️ The Takeaway

Unintended consequences. In shifting work away from agency experts, the ruling will put much greater burdens on members of congress and their staff, requiring “everyone to do more with less.” As a result, “’unelected staffers’ (may) have more influence than the lawmakers they work for,” or lawmakers may “rely on lobbyists to draft preliminary bills for them.” Some Democratic members of both chambers are looking at ways to “insert language into all new pieces of legislation to empower agencies to use their expertise to enforce the law, as they’ve done in the past.”

Red + blue = green? A coalition of 20 representatives unveiled a rare bipartisan carbon bill in the House
Blue voters, green energy and red tape: Liberals are accidentally smothering the clean energy revolution
Build back browner: Build clean energy on dirty land, these researchers say
Defusing disputes: Minnesota lawmakers hope ombudsperson can help defuse solar interconnection disputes
Let’s go: Delaware passes bill to facilitate 1.2 gw offshore wind solicitation
Pipeline peril? Burgum set to decide on massive pipeline project that’s pitting his rural constituents against GOP megadonors
Richmond reversal: Youngkin circumvents Legislature to upend Virginia climate policy
Keystone State debate: PA lawmakers begin talks on new renewable energy goals
“Detrimental”: California Democrats slam Biden ‘clean’ hydrogen rules
Dystopia or utopia? AI’s energy needs are enormous, and could have a once-in-a-generation impact on the electricity market
Short-term surplus: U.S. Is enjoying a growing energy surplus — for now
Model ordinance: ACP releases safety-focused ordinance for energy storage facilities
Opinion: Fear-based myths about clean energy could make Americans poorer and sicker

Channel the Power

On the banks of the Detroit River, what’s old is new again – and quite a bit cleaner, too, thanks to a big energy storage project that’s replacing a century-old coal plant.

The 535 MW Trenton Channel Power Plant began operating in 1924 and at the time was the largest facility around. It was decommissioned in 2022 and demolished earlier this year to make way for a new generation of clean power: the Trenton Channel Energy Center, which will provide 220 MW / 880 MWh of energy storage using batteries from Powin.

If that name sounds familiar, it may be because Powin powered the 2024 Super Bowl with renewable energy from a battery storage project connected to a solar farm in Nevada; the company is also “currently building a storage site on a soon-to-close coal plant in Sydney that it says will be one of the largest battery systems in the world.”

Converting coal plants to energy storage facilities makes sense for several reasons, chief among them the fact that doing so leverages the availability of existing infrastructure and bypasses the need for lengthy siting and interconnection processes associated with greenfield development. Another bonus is that energy storage has a much smaller footprint: whereas the entire Trenton Channel coal plant occupied more than 450 acres, Powin’s battery storage system will only use around 20 acres.

Construction on the Trenton Channel Energy Center will continue through 2025, and operations are expected to commence mid-2026. The facility will provide enough power for about 40,000 homes for a day, “or up to 150,0000 homes for four hours,” which will help considerably with peak electricity demand in the evening hours. The storage project is expected to cost about $460 million, but about a third of that ($140 million) will be offset by IRA tax incentives.