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Just 27 days before the July 4 BOC deadline, a federal district court delivered an unexpected win for wind and solar developers.
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Good morning and happy Friday,


The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicked off yesterday, and team USA’s first game is tonight. Amid the excitement and controversies surrounding the event, it’s worth noting that it’s expected to be the hottest World Cup ever, with volatile summer weather that could result in dangerous conditions for players as well as spectators. 


Speaking of volatility, oil prices were down as the week began but jumped briefly on Wednesday after President Trump warned of further action against Iran; analysts continue to warn that while markets have been complacent, an inflection point looms. 


Meanwhile, U.S. inflation rose to a three-year high of 4.2% in May, primarily due to higher energy prices resulting from the Iran conflict. 


For its part, solar keeps on truckin’—the latest report from Ember finds that in May, solar overtook coal as a source of U.S. electricity (12.8% vs. 12.2%) for the first month ever.


And the Global Wind Energy Council says that by the end of 2035, global offshore wind capacity is expected to quadruple to 420 GW.


Read on for more.

Safe Harbor Surprise


Just 27 days before the July 4 deadline for clean energy projects to establish "beginning of construction" (BOC) and preserve access to key federal tax credits, a federal district court delivered an unexpected win for wind and solar developers. On June 6, the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia vacated IRS Notice 2025-42, restoring—for now—the longstanding 5% safe harbor pathway that allows projects to establish BOC by incurring at least 5% of total project costs. Here's the skinny:

  • The 5% safe harbor is back—for now. The court struck down IRS guidance that had eliminated the safe harbor for wind projects and solar projects larger than 1.5 MW, forcing those projects to rely solely on the more challenging physical work test. The ruling restores a qualification pathway the industry has relied on since 2013.

  • Some projects stand to benefit more than others. The biggest winners may be projects that have already incurred—or can quickly incur—5% of project costs but are unlikely to complete sufficient physical work before July 4. Projects facing permitting, transformer, or construction delays may find the restored safe harbor especially valuable.

  • Proceed with caution. Foley & Lardner and other advisors note that the ruling could be appealed and the IRS could issue revised guidance. Projects relying solely on the 5% safe harbor are effectively "rolling the dice": if the ruling is overturned, they could face uncertainty around tax credit eligibility, financing, insurance coverage, transferability, and future audits.

  • Credit buyers may price in that risk. Crux Climate warns that projects relying on the restored safe harbor carry elevated eligibility risk, meaning buyers, lenders, and investors may discount credits tied to those projects until the legal picture becomes clearer. That could affect a key source of project financing in the $55–63 billion annual transferable tax credit market.


⚡️ The Takeaway


Stay the course. For many developers, the ruling may be most valuable as a backup plan rather than a primary strategy. Projects already pursuing the physical work test have little reason to change course, but establishing both pathways could provide additional protection for tax credit eligibility, tax equity financing, insurance underwriting, and future audit defense if questions arise about construction status.

Watt’s the Message?


For years, the politics of clean energy and climate were intertwined. Now, as voters focus on utility bills, inflation, and energy security, affordability is the organizing force in the US political conversation. Two stories this week—one about the future of clean energy tax credits and another about Democrats' evolving energy message—underscore that the clean energy industry has entered a new phase where cost, not carbon, is the lead argument. Here’s an overview:

  • Democrats have pledged to restore wind and solar tax credits if they regain power, but not every developer is eager to relive that fight. Some industry leaders argue that utility-scale renewables have matured into competitive technologies that no longer need perpetual subsidies. Others worry less about the credits themselves than the policy whiplash that comes with them. As one lawmaker noted, businesses can adapt to almost any rule—provided it stays in place long enough to plan around it.

  • At the same time, some developers and lawmakers argue the debate misses the point. They contend tax credits aren't primarily a gift to renewable companies; they're a mechanism for lowering electricity costs. In that view, restoring incentives isn't about protecting developer margins—it's about keeping power affordable for households, businesses, and large energy buyers.

  • That distinction may help explain a broader shift underway in Democratic politics. Facing voter concerns about inflation and energy prices, some party leaders are moving away from rhetoric centered on stopping fossil fuels and toward an energy message that is cost-centered and resource agnostic. 

  • The pitch: support every affordable source of energy while ensuring a level playing field for wind, solar, storage—and the transmission needed to deliver that power—to accelerate the deployment of technologies that are often the cheapest and fastest to build.

⚡️ The Takeaway


The winning argument. Taken together, the two debates point toward an emerging consensus: the strongest political case for clean energy is that it's the cheapest, fastest path to reliable energy—and its powerful climate benefits should be emphasized for select audiences. For other stakeholders, Democrats will have to walk a fine line and avoid “climate hushing.” Instead of downplaying climate change “to avoid perceived political backlash,” the challenge is to connect clean energy and climate to the issues voters care about most: affordability, jobs, and safe, reliable electricity.


Greener Skies Ahead


For years, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has been caught in a classic chicken-and-egg problem: airlines want more low-carbon fuel, but producers need long-term buyers before investing in new production capacity. This week, Google and American Airlines took a significant step toward breaking that logjam.

The companies announced a record-breaking sustainable aviation fuel certificate (SAFc) agreement—the largest ever between an airline and a single corporate customer. Under the deal, American will procure 35 million gallons of SAF over three years for use at Chicago O'Hare, while Google will purchase the associated environmental attributes to help address emissions from employee business travel.

Why does this matter? Aviation accounts for roughly 2-3% of global CO2 emissions and remains one of the toughest sectors to decarbonize. While SAF can reduce lifecycle emissions by as much as 80% compared with conventional jet fuel, production remains limited and costs remain high.




The partnership is designed to tackle that challenge by creating a stronger demand signal. American says the long-term commitment enabled it to secure a new fuel offtake agreement, helping unlock additional SAF supply. The deal was also made possible in part by Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and state lawmakers, whose SAF tax credit helped improve the economics of bringing larger volumes of the fuel to Chicago O'Hare.

Expect to see more arrangements like this. Rather than waiting for airlines alone to shoulder the cost of decarbonization, large corporate travel buyers are increasingly stepping in to help finance cleaner fuel markets. If successful, the Google-American model could become a blueprint for scaling SAF production—demonstrating how corporate demand, airline procurement, and smart state policy can work together to accelerate one of aviation's most important decarbonization tools.
Thanks for diving into the Developer Dispatch with us.
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