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Good morning and happy Friday,
This week, the world is reeling and stock markets are plunging following the President’s latest salvo of tariffs in what is widely seen as the start of a full-on global trade war. The new tariffs are expected to have “far reaching” impacts for renewable energy, particularly solar – more on this below in Must Read.
As tariff turbulence sucks up all the available oxygen, the DOE kill list is sparking bipartisan concern about projects Secretary Wright has pledged to cut; DOGE is apparently playing a star role.
In a somewhat unexpected twist, the United Mine Workers of America asks Is There Now a War on Coal Miners? as their International President sounds the alarm about recent moves made by the Trump administration.
If all the uncertainty around the IRA has you feeling glum, take heart: a veteran energy industry lobbyist provides some historical perspective.
And, Siemens Gamesa announced it had finished installing the blades on its 21.5 MW prototype turbine, the world’s largest.
Read on for more.
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Tariff Turmoil
As mentioned in the intro, America's trading partners are reeling from President Trump's sweeping new tariffs, setting off what many analysts are calling a full-blown global trade war with seismic implications for the U.S. energy sector. Here's what industry watchers are highlighting:
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While the tariffs aim to boost American manufacturing, they're poised to significantly slow the clean energy transition by raising equipment costs across the board. Ironically, traditional energy isn't spared either—oil and gas industries face what Bloomberg calls "a hammer blow" from higher steel and component costs.
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The solar industry is staring down staggering import duties—Cambodia (49%), Vietnam (46%), Thailand (37%), Malaysia (24%), and South Korea (26%)—targeting precisely the countries that supply the vast majority of U.S. solar cells and modules.
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Battery storage faces perhaps the most dramatic impact, with potential cost increases reaching 82% for many components. This "one-two punch" combined with uncertainty around IRA tax credits has analysts at Goldman Sachs warning of a "severe contraction" in the U.S. battery storage pipeline that was previously projected to triple by 2027.
- Wind turbines consist of thousands of subcomponents, about $1.7 billion of which were imported in 2023. A 25% tariff on imported goods could drive up the cost of land-based wind turbines by 10% and increase the cost of building renewable energy facilities by 7%.
⚡️ The Takeaway
Mix of sun and clouds. While the broader sector faces significant headwinds, companies with established domestic manufacturing are finding themselves in suddenly advantageous positions. First Solar stands out as a potential winner with its substantial U.S. production footprint, though Piper Sandler notes caution is warranted—the company still faces tariff exposure on the 34% of its 2025 U.S. shipments sourced from Vietnam and Malaysia (now subject to ~35% tariffs) and 12% from its Series-7 products from India (facing 26% tariffs). The next 6-12 months will likely see dramatic supply chain realignments as companies race to mitigate tariff impacts while balancing cost pressures.
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A Site to Behold
The renewable energy siting landscape is becoming increasingly complex and politically charged according to Clean Tomorrow, a non-partisan organization focused on "turning policy ambition into action." Their March siting newsletter reveals some concerning trends.
The first quarter of 2025 has already seen 67 siting bills introduced across 31 states – with Republican legislators spearheading the majority of these efforts. The political divide is stark: of the tracked bills, 48 were introduced by Republicans, 14 by Democrats, and 5 by policy committees.
Three troubling patterns have emerged in these restrictions:
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Strategic setback requirements that effectively zone out renewable development (seen in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Texas)
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Renewable-specific permitting processes with no equivalent requirements for fossil fuel facilities (Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas)
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Public referendum requirements that subject renewable projects to voter approval hurdles not faced by traditional energy infrastructure (Idaho, Texas, and New York)
⚡️ The Takeaway
Keeping siting in our sights. While restrictive local siting bills represent a significant threat to renewable deployment targets, not all news is gloomy. Several restrictive measures failed to advance, and innovative approaches are emerging - from Iowa's reasonable setback standards to Nebraska's "American Energy Friendly Counties" tax incentives and Pennsylvania's streamlined permitting board. Industry advocates should develop sophisticated state-level engagement strategies that build on these promising models, balancing community concerns with deployment imperatives to ensure clean energy goals can be met on the ground. You can check out the status of states’ legislative sessions here. Thanks for the great resources, Clean Tomorrow!
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Turning the Tide
Tidal energy has tremendous potential, although the technology is still working through “a mountain of obstacles” that include cost, environmental considerations, and impacts to marine traffic.
Progress is being made, however – even in the U.S. In Washington State’s scenic San Juan Islands, the member-owned Orcas Power and Light Cooperative (OPALCO) currently relies on undersea cables that deliver power from the mainland, but they’ve been working toward harnessing tidal power for many years.
Since 2018, they’ve been exploring the possibility of using a floating tidal harvesting device developed by Orbital Marine Power, a Scottish company. Currently, Orbital’s biggest tidal turbine is 2.4 MW, “the world’s largest.”
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As OPALCO notes, water has 800 times the density of air, making “tidal stream energy to the northwest what solar is to the southwest.” Notably, “tidal power is strong and predictable year-round,” and it requires relatively little “firming” as an energy resource. OPALCO estimates that “each Orbital O2 tidal turbine would be able to power 400 homes.”
OPALCO’s project depends on DOE funding, which may or may not be extended. Although offshore marine energy resources in the U.S. are likely to face rough seas for the next few years, the technology will continue to advance elsewhere, and hopefully be deployed off American shores sooner rather than later.
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Building American power requires a powerful team. |
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