Onward and Upward

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Good morning and happy Friday,

Well, the election is behind us – and a tough fight for clean energy lies ahead. In this special “election edition” of the Dispatch, we’re devoting both featured articles below to covering the results and their potential implications for renewables.

While the overall stock market may have experienced a traditional post-election bump, clean energy stocks didn’t fare as well, eliciting descriptors such as sink and tank in the U.S. as well as in Europe. And although control of the House remains undecided, GOP control of the Senate darkens the outlook for passage of a permitting bill, and portends a worst-case scenario for offshore wind.

Be sure to check out this Heatmap article about renewable energy’s swing voter problem – their latest analysis finds that the magnitude of a county’s swing from Obama to Trump between 2008 to 2016 “is one of the biggest predictors of whether a proposed wind or solar project will be contested or blocked.” That said, “deep red counties that have not seen a political shift...continue to build wind and solar at a good clip.”

Read on for more.

Onward and Upward

In the aftermath of Tuesday’s presidential election, renewable energy developers are wondering what lies ahead, with some bracing for a whipsaw. While major challenges lie ahead, it’s important to remember that the fundamentals of clean energy remain strong. Here’s a roundup of several trade press articles:

There’s a consensus that Trump’s victory is a ‘gut punch’ to U.S. climate action that could derail the clean energy transition. He’s vowed to repeal the IRA and “stop offshore wind on Day 1,” but "the jobs and the economic benefits have been so heavy in red states, it's hard to see an administration come in that says, 'we don't like this.'"
The president-elect plans to make drastic overhauls to energy policy, but he’s also promised to lower energy bills by 50% in a year, an “essentially impossible goal.”
One big wild card for clean energy companies is the prospect of a new era of U.S.-China energy rivalry, which could usher in “global supply-chain shocks that will raise the costs of U.S. energy investments.” One economist likened this to the impact of BrexitBritain, noting that “So far Britain continues to languish in stagnation, and foreign direct investment into the country has fallen.”

⚡️ The Takeaway

Time to play defense. Observers agree that Trump’s “antipathy for climate policy” will have “profound implications” for America’s energy and environmental future. Another source of mystery (and anxiety) are questions about what role billionaire Elon Musk might play in the incoming administration. While Tesla has benefitted from the IRA, he’s also said that eliminating the IRA would “probably help” Tesla in the long run.

A Few Bright Spots

While the presidential election was the main event this week, hundreds of other down-ballot contests across the country also have implications for clean energy policy. While Congress is expected to reverse course on climate, there were a few bright spots for clean energy on Tuesday – here’s a closer look:

Although Republicans won 8 of 11 gubernatorial races, bringing the number of GOP-led states to 27, Democrats held the governor’s office in North Carolina and gained control of the state House in Minnesota, and in several states climate initiatives fared well.
While the results in state legislatures were mixed, these bodies are now “more important than ever” in terms of enacting climate and clean energy policies.
In terms of regulatory commissions, Republicans largely prevailed, retaining control in Arizona, Louisiana, Alabama, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and South Dakota (Montana’s race is still undecided). In Texas, Republican Christi Craddick was reelected to the Railroad Commission, which regulates the state’s oil and gas industry.

⚡️ The Takeaway

County commissioners count. In Knox County, OH, organized opposition to the Frasier Solar project propelled Drenda Keesee to a seat on the board of county commissioners; one of Ms. Keesee’s Republican primary opponents noted that “local commissioner races are particularly vulnerable to the sorts of disinformation, campaign spending and political attacks we’re used to seeing more often in races for higher offices at the state and federal level.”

Cutthroat: Why China’s solar boom is a bust for its leading players
Fundamental Gap: Renewable energy giants 'getting it wrong over wind and solar droughts'
Good News: 5 large-scale clean energy projects announced in Oct; companies expect to invest $1.2 Billion, create 900+ new jobs
Justice40 Is Succeeding: Disadvantaged communities are seeing a boom in clean energy manufacturing, but the midwest lags
Calls for Reform: 5 governors call for PJM capacity market rule changes to reduce ‘unnecessary’ consumer costs
Hmmn: Utility regulators take millions from industries they oversee. What could go wrong?
Testing the Waters: How can you stop batteries from catching fire? Perhaps by adding some water
Seize the Moment: DOE awards Moment Energy $20.3M to repurpose used EV batteries for energy storage systems
(R)EPEAT: The Department of Energy wants to pay companies to make greener solar panels
Dutch Treat: RWE gets permits to build 100 MW electrolyser to be fed by offshore wind power
Next Generation: SolarCycle's new Georgia facility can recycle 10 million solar panels annually
Crisis = Opportunity: Chinese company bullish on Cuban solar drive, executive says
Green Living: Old wind turbine nacelles could be 'tiny houses' of the future
Energy Nerds Rejoice: EIA publishes new Sankey diagram on energy and the U.S. economy

Mellow Yellow

While the events of this week may not be ideal in terms of reducing GHG emissions, we at least have some good news when it comes to capturing carbon dioxide. Scientists at UC Berkeley have developed a new method of direct air capture (DAC) that could prove surprisingly effective – and inexpensive.

Dubbed COF-999 (COF stands for “covalent organic framework,” an extra-strong chemical structure), the material “could potentially capture CO2 and release it for storage over tens of thousands of cycles” before needing to be replaced. COF-999 is nothing to cough at: “just 7 ounces of it can capture around 44 pounds of CO2 in a year, roughly as much as a large tree.”

Another major advantage is that unlike materials used in existing DAC facilities, which can be sensitive to humidity, COF-999 doesn’t have that problem. This saves energy by avoiding the need to dry the air from which the CO2 is being captured.

The company working to commercialize the technology, Atoco, says the materials used in their modules “can be scaled up for industrial production, making them suitable for large-scale carbon capture projects.” And while DAC costs typically run as much as $600-$1,000/ton, the industry is aiming to reach $100/ton – something Atoco believes it can meet, “or even beat.” Bananadine may be fictional, but this sounds like the real deal.