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Big Tech's race to power AI infrastructure is reshaping the U.S. clean energy market, with hyperscalers taking on more development risk before tax credits phase out.
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Good morning and happy Friday, 


France and Spain are battling fierce wildfires; although much smaller in scale than those of our neighbor to the north (~400,000 hectares vs. ~3.7 million hectares), they’re in densely populated areas and have forced the evacuation of more than 300,000 people so far. And while Canada’s fire activity is about 25% above the 10-year average, in Europe activity is three times higher.


On a more positive note, solar is having its best summer yet in Europe; meanwhile, although China’s solar industry is losing money, between January to June, less than half the country’s electricity came from coal for the first time, and the government announced plans to boost wind and solar by more than 50% in the next five years.


The Iran war has entered its six month. Oil prices dipped, rose, and dipped again as renewed hostilities threaten to expand the war and pull in more countries; U.S. gas prices are still high, compounding a perception problem for Republicans. Against this backdrop, on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, providing no relief in borrowing costs for individuals, businesses—or clean energy developers.


And, this week PJM's board announced it would hold a backstop capacity auction in September. Although not directly caused by data center demand, the one-time auction is part of a broader effort to address reliability concerns while preparing for a surge in electricity demand from AI data centers and other large loads. 


The proposal also includes a data center registry with teeth—tracking large new electricity users and allowing many without dedicated power supplies to be curtailed during grid emergencies—while shifting more responsibility for securing new generation onto those customers rather than existing ratepayers.


Read on for more.

Power Procurement Shift


Big Tech's race to power AI infrastructure is reshaping the U.S. renewable energy market, with hyperscalers taking on more development risk to secure projects before federal clean energy tax credits begin to phase out. As developers face higher equipment costs, tariffs, permitting delays, and transmission bottlenecks, corporate buyers are increasingly accepting shared risk in PPAs to keep projects moving—and avoid even steeper electricity prices later this decade. Here are some things to watch:

  • Corporate clean energy procurement remains strong despite a more challenging development environment. Developers signed a record 17 GW of clean energy PPAs in the first quarter of 2026, as buyers accelerated procurement ahead of tax credit deadlines. Many previously stalled deals are now closing as parties adapt to more complex commercial terms.

  • PPA negotiations are expanding beyond price. Large technology companies are increasingly sharing risks tied to tariffs, transmission upgrades, permitting delays, and tax policy to keep projects on schedule. For AI-driven data center customers, speed to power has become just as important as securing competitive pricing.

  • Developers expect today's elevated PPA prices to persist through 2030 before rising further as federal tax incentives expire. Analysts project unsubsidized solar prices could increase roughly 30% after tax credits phase out, while some forecasts suggest overall clean energy prices could rise 40% to 120%, depending on market and technology. Developers are using "safe harbor" strategies to preserve tax credit eligibility.


⚡️ The Takeaway


Risk, rebalanced. It’s clear that AI-driven electricity demand is fundamentally changing project finance and procurement. Rapid load growth, transmission constraints, and long interconnection timelines are increasingly pushing data center developers to consider on-site generation alongside utility-scale PPAs, though many energy experts are skeptical that those large behind-the-meter forecasts will come to fruition. Buyers are becoming more flexible partners, but successful projects will increasingly depend on navigating permitting, interconnection, transmission, and policy risks—not simply delivering the lowest-cost renewable energy.

Powering Forward


Despite policy rollbacks under the Trump administration, the U.S. clean energy buildout is expected to remain remarkably strong through the end of the decade, according to a new Rhodium Group analysis. In terms of clean energy, the report suggests the industry's near-term pipeline remains largely intact—but the outlook after 2030 gets hazy, and will depend on technology costs, natural gas prices, and future federal policy. Here are some highlights:

  • Renewable development is expected to remain resilient through 2030 thanks to projects that qualified for "safe harbor" tax credits before the July 4 eligibility deadline. Rhodium projects annual additions of roughly 50 GW of solar, wind, and battery storage through the remainder of the decade, even under more conservative scenarios.

  • After 2030, however, the market becomes far less predictable. Without federal tax incentives, Rhodium projects outcomes ranging from continued record renewable deployment to a sharp slowdown, with natural gas increasingly competing for new generation. Depending on technology costs and fuel prices, annual renewable additions could range from 53 GW in the most optimistic case to just 3 GW in the most pessimistic scenario.

  • Rising electricity demand continues to support long-term investment, but forecasting future load remains challenging. Data centers are expected to be the largest source of demand growth this decade, yet estimates for U.S. data center electricity consumption by 2030 vary by more than the combined electricity use of California and Florida—highlighting the lack of clarity developers face when planning future projects.


⚡️ The Takeaway


Navigating uncertainty. For developers, the report reinforces two realities. The current development window remains strong, supported by safe-harbored projects and growing electricity demand. Beyond 2030, however, project economics will increasingly depend on the competitiveness of renewables relative to natural gas, the pace of battery cost declines, and whether future federal policies restore or replace today's expiring incentives.

Game On


The idea of someone grinding through a 12-hour gaming session might not prompt you to think "There's the future of renewable energy finance," but SuperPower begs to differ.
 
The startup was founded by gaming industry veterans who argue that climate has a marketing problem—not a technology problem. Their philosophy is simple: people don't change behavior because they're told to; they change when participation is fun, rewarding, and frictionless. Rather than asking people to consume less or feel guilty, SuperPower wants gamers to keep playing while helping finance more renewable energy.
 
Instead of trying to sell climate action like "broccoli," the founders say they're building the "ice cream truck." Players pay a monthly subscription, earn in-game rewards, and collectively become a clean energy customer large enough to participate in markets that have traditionally been reserved for hyperscalers, utilities, and Fortune 500 companies.




SuperPower pools subscriber revenue to support new renewable energy projects using virtual power purchase agreements (VPPAs). By aggregating thousands of individual subscriptions into a single source of demand, it creates a collective buyer that can help developers secure financing without relying on a single large corporate offtaker.
 
That marketplace model is enabled by Ever.green, which connects organizations of all sizes with new clean energy projects and structures the commercial agreements that make those investments possible. In effect, Ever.green provides the marketplace and transaction platform, while SuperPower brings an entirely new class of buyers—gamers.
 
As the company’s website explains, “As players, we’re the world’s most connected, most relentless community. We grind, optimize...and then we go again.
Now we’re bringing that same energy, to energy.” It goes on to note that 10 MW of solar “can produce enough capacity to power the equivalent of ~125 million hours of gaming per year.”
 
Recently, SuperPower announced that its subscriber community participated in supporting the 110 MW Three W Solar Project in Texas through a VPPA facilitated by Ever.green. While the company isn't claiming sole credit for financing the project, the deal serves as an early proof point that thousands of individual gamers can collectively participate in utility-scale clean energy procurement—a role traditionally reserved for corporate giants.
Thanks for diving into the Developer Dispatch with us.
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