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Good morning and happy Friday,

The midterms are just 25 days away, and prices are looming large in this energy election. The diesel saga drags on; in an attempt to lower prices, President Trump made tax-exempt ‘red dye’ diesel available to all, but the effort was panned by groups representing the trucking industry.

In related news, the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook says data centers and electrification will push power consumption in the U.S. to record levels in 2026 and 2027, although on the plus side, “The percentage of renewable generation will rise from around 24% in 2025 to 25% in 2026 and 27% in 2027.”

New analysis from Energy Innovation finds that U.S. households will pay an average of $6,500 more for energy cumulatively through 2040 due to federal policy changes made by President Trump, including the cancellation of new clean energy projects.

And on Monday this week, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the landmark Boulder climate case. The justices will now consider whether they have jurisdiction to review the case; a decision is expected by June of 2027, although they may issue a ruling before that. The justices' questions appeared to reveal significant disagreement about jurisdiction as well the merits, and Alito's recusal—which leaves open the possibility of a 4-4 split—materially changes the stakes.

Read on for more.

MISO’s 71 GW Queue Crunch

MISO is trying to clear its oldest interconnection queue—and developers with projects waiting to connect have a lot riding on the outcome. The grid operator has asked FERC to approve changes to the 2022 Definitive Planning Phase (DPP) queue, which contains roughly 71 GW of proposed generation. Without the changes, MISO says the study process could be delayed by at least 18 months, potentially pushing back subsequent queue cycles as well. The proposal would:

Give developers a penalty-free exit: Projects could withdraw before the Oct. 20 “Decision Point II” without penalties, giving marginal projects a chance to leave rather than trigger more restudies later.
Raise the cost-overrun threshold: The threshold for penalty-free withdrawal would increase from a 35% to a 50% increase in network upgrade costs.
Cap final restudies: MISO would conduct no more than one final restudy in the last phase of the process, limiting the cascading delays caused when projects withdraw late.
Win broad—but not universal—support: The Organization of MISO States, Advanced Energy United, RWE, Ameren and Alliant have backed the proposal. Pathway Power, however, argues the higher withdrawal threshold shifts financial risk onto developers that remain in the queue and could reduce MISO’s incentive to produce accurate cost estimates.

⚡️ The Takeaway

For developers, the timing is especially important. MISO has asked FERC to approve the changes by Oct. 19, one day before Decision Point II (a major commitment milestone for developers because it’s the point where a project has to decide whether to stay in the queue and commit to moving forward,or withdraw). If approved, the reforms could provide a faster path through the backlog and more certainty around study timelines. If not, the 71 GW queue could face another 18 months of delays—and developers will have to make withdrawal decisions under the existing rules.

States Are Market Makers

As written, the Senate’s permitting package (BAAJA) could have major implications for data centers—and, by extension, clean energy developers. The bill would speed construction of the power infrastructure needed for the AI boom while requiring data centers to shoulder more of the costs they impose on the grid. That could push some projects toward behind-the-meter gas generation, potentially weakening a major source of demand for clean energy. Virginia is taking a different approach: using data center growth to help accelerate clean energy development. Here’s the big picture:

Data centers could face a much bigger bill. BAAJA would require new facilities of at least 20 MW to pay incremental costs for generation, storage, transmission and distribution, which would help reduce other customers’ bills.

That could boost behind-the-meter power. Morgan Stanley estimates a potential 120 GW U.S. market for behind-the-meter generation through 2029, driven largely by data centers facing lengthy grid interconnection timelines.
Virginia offers a different model. The state’s new energy plan “outlines four utility pathways to net-zero carbon by 2050” while meeting demand from data center growth; all four modeled pathways call for major solar expansion, with 1.2-1.8 GW of new solar annually. It also envisions data centers using batteries and onsite clean power to reduce their peak demand.

⚡️ The Takeaway

Having her cake and eating it too. BAAJA could serve as a catalyst for a massive new market for solar, storage and transmission, or a detour to a buildout of onsite gas. Faced with soaring electricity demand and rising prices, Governor Spanberger sees no need to ditch Virginia’s climate goals or enact a moratorium on data center development. Instead, she’s leveraging data centers as a way to get the Commonwealth to net zero—and other states should take note. With the right clean power requirements, planning and incentives, data center demand can advance the clean energy transition rather than stall it.

BAAJA Basics: What a president can and can’t do under the Senate permitting bill
NAM Bam, Thank You Ma’am: Manufacturers launch permitting ads and Manufacturers ‘all in’ on Senate permitting reform bill
PAC Attack: Clean energy group sets its sights on a new GOP target: Lauren Boebert
Power Shift: How utilities lost their grip on Washington
Hardhat Hesitation: The crucial hardhat union that has yet to endorse the permitting bill
Wonky Provisions: The Senate permitting deal contains a data center double tap
Solar’s Too Sexy: To block solar energy projects, one Indiana community lumped them in with junkyards and adult bookstores
The Next Frontier: US solar panel makers try to catch China with a big leap in technology
Reluctant to Commit: Connecticut’s solar ambitions hit skepticism from a major utility
Quack, Quack: Rooftop solar growth makes giant New England gas plant obsolete as region hits 500th Duck Curve day
Opinion: The battery-storage backlash is a costly case of mistaken identity
WoodMac: 4-hour battery storage is cheaper to install than gas turbines all across globe and Batteries beat gas peakers on cost globally, but U.S. faces trade headwinds
A Successful Turnaround: How a reluctant Iowa farming county undid a ban on battery storage
Murky: Even ‘retained’ DOE projects are still waiting for funding
The Exodus Continues: Veteran conservative lawyer quits Trump’s interior department and warns of ‘assault on the rule of law’
Backlash That Bites: Data center cancellations Top $260 billion in 2026
$6,400 Question: How much are AI data centers adding to your electricity bill?
Opinion: Data centers will probably shrink. Here's why that's important.
Listening Tour: Virginia Lt. Gov. Hashmi opposes NextEra-Dominion merger as public hearings begin
Collaboration: New England states find common ground on nuclear power
Power Uprates: Energy firms try to squeeze more power out of old nuclear plants and Google and Constellation Energy sign deal for 890 MW of nuclear upgrades and DOE intends to loan Vistra $4.2B for nuclear fleet improvements
Overlooked Opportunity: This hidden device could free up gigawatts of power for the US grid

Have You Heard This One?

Solar projects generate clean power and create jobs, but did you know they can also reduce dust storms and dust pollution in cities hundreds of miles away? That’s the finding of a study from China’s Gobi Desert, where researchers discovered that solar panels slow winds near the ground, help stabilize soil and act as windbreaks, significantly cutting the amount of dust that gets picked up and carried downwind.

Using satellite observations and computer modeling, researchers found that the 42 existing solar farms in the Gobi—covering more than 13,000 square kilometers—reduce springtime dust emissions by an estimated 352,400 metric tons per month.

The potential impact is set to increase dramatically as China works toward its goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by the 2060, “a target that would require increasing the area covered by solar farms in the Gobi Desert by eleven-fold”—meaning the area covered by solar panels would grow to 140,000 square kilometers, an area roughly the size of New York state.

If that happens, researchers estimate that Gobi dust pollution could fall 12%, while the amount transported downwind could drop 21% compared with a scenario without the additional solar development. Northern Chinese cities could see average concentrations of larger dust particles fall by about 14%.

Apparently, the dust suppression benefits of the solar panels scale as conditions deteriorate—"solar panels have their greatest effect on days when dust pollution is at its worst”—so the effect could become increasingly valuable as climate change drives stronger winds and more dust.

Thanks for diving into the Developer Dispatch with us.

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