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Much of the national conversation about the upcoming elections has focused on Congress—but several state-level races could have an outsize influence on next gen energy policy.
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Good morning and happy Friday, 


Global oil prices surged over $105 a barrel this week, due to the shutdown of a major Saudi pipeline and the blockage of key oil shipping routes by Iran-backed Houthi rebels; new analysis from S&P Global predicts that Middle East crude production will remain disrupted until the end of 2027.


The continued escalation is expected to keep pushing domestic fuel prices higher, and the financial toll of the war with Iran is climbing rapidly. This week the CBO said it has already cost U.S. taxpayers approximately $38 billion, with the November elections just 46 days away.


In response to rising inflation, on Wednesday the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to a new range of 3.75 to 4 percent. “Fed policymakers also indicated in new forecasts that there would likely be further increases in the meetings ahead,” all of which is problematic for renewables.


The Senate's return this week briefly reunited both chambers on Capitol Hill for the first time since July. However, after slightly more than two weeks of legislative work following a five-week summer break, the House adjourned Wednesday for a seven-week midterm campaigning recess. The Senate is scheduled to stay in session through September.


Last but not least, don't skip this week's Last Byte. Berkeley Lab is fielding its second national survey of utility-scale solar developers. The first one, in 2023, produced the only real developer-side data on why projects get delayed and canceled. and those The findings have been quoted in siting-reform debates and reports ever since, including last week's Sabin Center study. A bit of your time now allows your experience to feed into the numbers policymakers cite for the next three years. Details below. 


Oh, and don't miss Heatmap's new report on communicating about clean energy in an age of affordability while you're at it!


Read on for more.

The Trifecta Effect


Much of the national conversation about the upcoming elections has focused on outcomes for Congress—but several state-level races could have an outsize influence on clean energy policy.

Evidence shows that Democrats are more likely to enact pro-clean energy legislation; Inside Climate News looks at the states in which a Democratic trifecta (winning control of a governor’s office and both legislative chambers) could make a difference for the sector. Here’s an overview:

  • A small percentage of races could bring big changes. Per Ballotpedia, Republicans currently hold trifectas in 23 states, while Democrats have them in 16 states; 11 states are split. That balance could flip in November—ICN reports that the outcome of “fewer than 25 races out of more than 7,000...could determine whether Democrats gain five new trifectas, or none at all.” 

  • A trifecta could mean policy direction shifts quickly. Trifectas in states such as Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin could mean changes in renewable energy, storage and utility policy. It’s worth noting that Wisconsin has significant offshore wind potential but relatively limited state support for additional renewable generation and storage.

  • Solar and storage markets warrant attention. Arizona’s substantial solar resource and Pennsylvania’s comparatively low renewable deployment could create opportunities for new solar, battery and grid-infrastructure projects if state policy becomes more supportive.

  • For some technologies, state planning is key. A new report from CATF finds that in deregulated power markets, state-led efforts can make the difference for clean energy technology with long lead times and development barriers, like geothermal, offshore wind, and long-duration energy storage.

⚡️ The Takeaway


A powerful tool. With progress at the federal level uncertain, trifectas at the state level “are the most powerful tool for 2027 policy outcomes on clean energy,” says Caroline Spears, executive director of advocacy group Climate Cabinet. ICN notes that “Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin are the most likely to shift from split control to Democratic trifectas,” while Pennsylvania and Arizona “have been just out of reach for Democrats” for years—we’ll be watching closely to see what happens this fall. Of course, given that the pendulum of legislative control swings back and forth in state legislatures, passing durable reforms that can survive shifting political winds will be critical for long term impact.

A Terawatt-Hour Opportunity


Energy storage is taking on a much larger role in the U.S. power system as surging electricity demand increases the need for fast, flexible and reliable capacity. A new report from the Energy Storage Council (ESC) presents the industry’s vision for realizing 1 terawatt-hour of grid-scale energy storage deployed across the country by the end of 2032—while noting this will depend on policy, market access, and the ability to build and interconnect projects quickly. Here are some fast facts:

  • A massive deployment opportunity: Reaching 1 TWh by 2032 would require roughly 25% annual growth, representing more than 300% growth in power capacity and 500% growth in energy capacity over five years. Storage resources are expected to be operating in all 50 states, and benefitting areas with rapidly growing load and constrained grid capacity.

  • Storage can deliver system-wide value: ESC estimates that scaling storage to more than 850 GWh over the next decade could generate over $250 billion in cumulative U.S. energy-system cost savings. BESS projects can reduce peak costs, defer grid upgrades, improve utilization of existing infrastructure and provide a wide range of essential grid services.

  • Policy and execution will shape the market: Tax and regulatory certainty, market participation rules, permitting and interconnection processes, and domestic manufacturing capacity could all affect deployment speed. For developers, these factors will be particularly important as electricity demand from data centers, manufacturing and electrification continues to grow.

⚡️ The Takeaway


Many forces at play. The storage market is undergoing rapid expansion, but ongoing growth depends on policy and grid processes that can keep up with demand. For developers, markets that combine strong load growth with workable rules and streamlined project development remain a priority. Of course, there are many forces at play: globally, batteries are “taking the energy sector by storm—but most are still made, and deployed, in China.” And experts are warning that the FCC inverter ban poses a greater threat to US renewables than FEOC compliance.

Your Turn to Be the Data


Last week's Must Read tallied 888 ways communities have said no to renewable energy. This week, someone is asking developers how to get to yes, and they need you to answer.


Researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory are fielding a new national survey of professionals with recent experience developing utility-scale solar in the United States. It's the follow-up to their 2023 study, the first of its kind, which gave the industry something it had never had: hard numbers from the developer's side of the table on why projects stall and die. Roughly half of projects significantly delayed. At least 30% canceled. Local ordinances, interconnection, and community opposition topping the list of causes, with the overwhelming majority of developers saying in 2023 that opposition was a bigger problem than it was in 2018 five years ago.


Those findings didn't stay in a PDF. They ran in were cited by the Associated Press, anchored a Brookings explainer on permitting, and made their way into E&E News, Utility Dive, and countless statehouse hearings and county commission packets since. When a legislator says "developers report that local opposition is a leading cause of cancellations," this is the study they're quoting.
Your Turn to Be Data

Here's what's different this time. The 2023 survey diagnosed the problem. The new one is hunting for solutions: what actually works in permitting and community engagement, from the people who've tried it. That's a rare opportunity to shape the policy conversation with your own experience instead of watching it get shaped for you.


The catch is the same as always with surveys: it's only as good as the people who fill it out. If the results are to reflect what it's really like to build in Texas and Ohio and Virginia and Michigan, they need to hear from the people doing the building in Texas and Ohio and Virginia and Michigan.


Take the survey here. It's funded by the Department of Energy, and if you'd rather talk it through than click through, lead researcher Robi Nilson will take your responses over the phone or Zoom. Reach her at rnilson@lbl.gov or (360) 520-5947.


The industry has spent years being described by other people's numbers. This is a chance to supply your own.
Thanks for diving into the Developer Dispatch with us.
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