|
|
 |
|
|
|
Good morning and happy Friday,
They’re baaack…at long last, on Wednesday evening, the longest U.S. government shutdown in history came to a close. It remains to be seen what the near- and long-term impacts of the shutdown on U.S. next-generation energy will be, but for a more global perspective, check out this week’s Radar, which explores the IEA’s flagship World Energy Outlook report.
In other news, the COP30 summit in Brazil generated a lot of headlines, many of them focused on California Governor Gavin Newsom, who was described as a “rock star” and swarmed by reporters. For his part, Energy Secretary Chris Wright criticized the event while attending another conference in Greece.
And, the holidays will be here before we know it … if you know anyone who’d like a solar and farmland jigsaw puzzle, now’s your chance.
Read on for more.
|
|
|
 |
|
|
Self Sabotage
A new report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) warns that more than 500 planned U.S. solar and storage projects—totaling nearly 116 GW, or half of all new power capacity expected through 2030—are now at risk because of new federal actions and prolonged permitting delays. SEIA argues the bottleneck is “exacerbating the energy emergency the Trump administration itself declared earlier this year,” threatening to slow deployment and drive up power costs nationwide. Here are some key points:
-
A stalled buildout: SEIA’s analysis, drawing on Energy Information Administration data, finds that 73 GW of solar and 43 GW of storage projects remain stuck in approval processes spanning federal, state, and local levels. Many have already cleared local hurdles and secured community support, only to be held up in “final reviews” that could derail years of work.
-
Nationwide exposure: The projects stretch across 44 states. In 18 of them—including Texas, Virginia, Arizona, and Nevada—more than half of planned new power capacity could be lost. These are also the very markets under pressure to meet skyrocketing electricity demand from AI infrastructure and data centers.
-
Ripple effects: Regulatory uncertainty is rippling through the investment ecosystem. Developers, landowners, and financiers are pressing pause, particularly on projects that involve any federal land or oversight. SEIA warns that even fully compliant projects could face sudden stoppages, undermining investor confidence and local economic benefits.
⚡️ The Takeaway
Costs and consequences. Energy security starts with certainty. SEIA’s report frames this as an economic crisis as much as a political one: solar and storage remain the fastest, lowest-cost tools for adding power to the grid. Without them, SEIA warns, electricity prices will rise, industrial growth will falter, and the U.S. risks losing ground in AI-driven competitiveness. The broader message is clear: when federal policy undercuts local agency and market momentum, the “energy emergency” becomes a problem of our own making.
|
|
|
 |
|
|
The Other Energy Curve
The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2025 paints a very different picture from SEIA’s warning of stalled U.S. deployment. Globally, clean energy investment and buildout are accelerating even as domestic projects face growing headwinds from permitting and policy uncertainty. Electricity demand is climbing fast, and clean energy is scaling to meet it, showing that clean energy is beginning to outpace fossil fuels in new capacity additions. The report highlights both opportunity and strain across supply chains, investment, and infrastructure.
-
Uncertain peaks: Oil demand may plateau by 2030 under stated policies, but if current trends persist, growth continues well into the 2030s. Natural gas demand is now expected to peak later, around 2035, driven by lower prices, rising data center power needs, and record cooling demand.
-
Mineral bottlenecks: The IEA warns that critical minerals remain the weak link. China refines 19 of the 20 key materials for clean technologies, and global mining investment is not keeping pace. These chokepoints could slow deployment and raise costs.
-
Solar surge, integration strain: Renewables, led by solar, could provide nearly half of global power by 2035. Yet grid integration and permitting challenges threaten to stall annual solar additions at 2024 levels.
-
Storage and nuclear reemerge: Energy storage, while less featured in the report, is now indispensable for grid stability. Nuclear is also seeing renewed interest, particularly from data centers and technology companies seeking firm, low-carbon power.
⚡️ The Takeaway
Acceleration with friction. The clean energy trajectory is unmistakably upward. The IEA expects more renewable capacity to come online in the next five years than in the previous forty. But scaling will not be smooth. Mineral scarcity, permitting logjams, and grid constraints could blunt momentum. The message for U.S. developers: the global tide is moving your way, but local readiness will determine who keeps up.
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
Avnos’ Secret Sauce
It’s been a minute since we last looked at direct air capture (DAC), technology designed to help fight climate change by removing carbon dioxide from the air. Avnos is a Los Angeles-based company that began popping up in news stories in 2023, and in early 2024 raised $36 million in an investment round led by a subsidiary of NextEra.
Now it’s in the headlines again, this time for securing up to $17 million in project financing under a phased agreement with Shell US Gas and Power, LLC (Shell) and Mitsubishi Corporation (Americas) to build a first-of-its-kind facility (cumulatively, the company has raised more than $100 million in private and public funding). Project Cedar is the company’s first commercial-scale deployment and a major step toward market-ready, scalable carbon removal.
Avnos’ secret sauce is its proprietary Hybrid Direct Air Capture (HDAC™) technology, which not only removes carbon dioxide from the air but also produces clean water in the same process.
Traditional DAC systems rely on large amounts of external heat and water, making them costly and resource-intensive.
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
HDAC™ eliminates those needs entirely by capturing atmospheric moisture as part of the CO₂ removal process. The system then condenses that moisture into clean water, creating a valuable co-product that offsets one of DAC’s biggest sustainability hurdles. At full operation, Cedar will remove 3,000 metric tons of CO₂ and generate 6,000 tons of water per year.
Avnos’ design is also modular and field-tested, bridging the gap between laboratory research and real-world application. Modularity facilitates deployment across industries and regions, including data centers, where HDAC can address both carbon and water needs simultaneously.
The field tests – including Project Alpine in California and Project Brighton in New Jersey – proved the technology’s ability to perform in different climates and conditions, and also helped it scale, resulting in the Project Cedar pilot. Many will be watching to see if Avnos has unlocked the secret to offering a promising and practical pathway to carbon removal worldwide.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thanks for diving into the Developer Dispatch with us.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Building American power requires a powerful team. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
